Find and execute cross-platform arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets
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tessl review fix ./src/skills/bundled/opportunity/SKILL.mdDiscover and execute cross-platform arbitrage opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, and Drift.
Based on arXiv:2508.03474 which found $40M+ in realized arbitrage on Polymarket.
| Type | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Internal | YES + NO < $1 on same platform | Buy both for guaranteed profit |
| Cross-Platform | Same market priced differently | Buy low on A, sell high on B |
| Combinatorial | Logical violations (P(A) > P(B) when A implies B) | Trump > Republican |
| Edge | Market vs external model (538, polls) | Market 45%, model 52% |
/opportunities scan # Scan all platforms for opportunities
/opportunities scan "trump" # Scan with keyword filter
/opportunities scan --min-edge 2 # Min 2% edge
/opportunities scan --min-liquidity 1000 # Min $1000 liquidity
/opportunities active # View active opportunities
/opportunities active --sort edge # Sort by edge size
/opportunities active --sort liquidity # Sort by liquidity/opportunities realtime start # Start continuous scanning
/opportunities realtime stop # Stop scanning
/opportunities realtime status # Check monitoring status
/opportunities realtime config --interval 30 # Set scan interval (seconds)/opportunities link <market-a> <market-b> # Manually link equivalent markets
/opportunities unlink <market-a> <market-b> # Remove link
/opportunities links # View all linked markets
/opportunities auto-match # Run auto-matching algorithm/opportunities execute <id> # Execute an opportunity
/opportunities execute <id> --size 100 # Execute with $100 size
/opportunities mark-taken <id> # Mark as taken (manual)
/opportunities record-outcome <id> <pnl> # Record P&L outcome/opportunities stats # Performance statistics
/opportunities stats --period 7d # Last 7 days
/opportunities history # Past opportunities
/opportunities by-platform # Stats by platform pair
/opportunities by-type # Stats by opportunity type/opportunities risk <id> # Model execution risk
/opportunities estimate <id> # Estimate execution costs
/opportunities kelly <id> # Calculate Kelly fractionimport { createOpportunityFinder } from 'clodds/opportunity';
const finder = createOpportunityFinder({
platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi', 'betfair', 'manifold'],
// Filtering
minEdge: 0.5, // 0.5% minimum edge
minLiquidity: 500, // $500 minimum liquidity
minConfidence: 0.7, // 70% match confidence
// Real-time
enableRealtime: true,
scanIntervalMs: 30000, // 30 second intervals
// Credentials
polymarket: { apiKey, apiSecret, passphrase, privateKey },
kalshi: { apiKey, privateKey },
});// One-time scan
const opportunities = await finder.scan({
query: 'election', // Optional keyword
minEdge: 1, // 1% minimum
minLiquidity: 1000, // $1000 minimum
platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi'],
});
for (const opp of opportunities) {
console.log(`${opp.type}: ${opp.description}`);
console.log(` Edge: ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(` Liquidity: $${opp.liquidity.toLocaleString()}`);
console.log(` Confidence: ${(opp.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
console.log(` Score: ${opp.score}/100`);
console.log(` Platforms: ${opp.platforms.join(' ↔ ')}`);
}// Start real-time scanning
await finder.startRealtime();
// Event handlers
finder.on('opportunity', (opp) => {
console.log(`🎯 New opportunity: ${opp.description}`);
console.log(` Edge: ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
});
finder.on('opportunityExpired', (opp) => {
console.log(`❌ Opportunity expired: ${opp.id}`);
});
finder.on('opportunityUpdated', (opp) => {
console.log(`📊 Updated: ${opp.id} - Edge now ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
});
// Get active opportunities
const active = await finder.getActive();
// Stop monitoring
await finder.stopRealtime();// Manually link equivalent markets
await finder.linkMarkets(
{ platform: 'polymarket', id: 'market-123' },
{ platform: 'kalshi', id: 'TRUMP-WIN' }
);
// Auto-match using semantic similarity
const matches = await finder.autoMatchMarkets({
minSimilarity: 0.85,
platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi'],
});
console.log(`Found ${matches.length} potential matches`);
for (const match of matches) {
console.log(`${match.marketA.question}`);
console.log(` ↔ ${match.marketB.question}`);
console.log(` Similarity: ${(match.similarity * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
}
// Get all links
const links = await finder.getLinks();// Execute an opportunity
const result = await finder.execute(opportunityId, {
size: 100, // $100 position
maxSlippage: 0.5, // 0.5% max slippage
useProtectedOrders: true,
});
console.log(`Executed: ${result.status}`);
console.log(` Filled: $${result.filledSize}`);
console.log(` Avg price: ${result.avgPrice}`);
console.log(` Fees: $${result.fees}`);
// Mark as taken manually
await finder.markTaken(opportunityId);
// Record outcome
await finder.recordOutcome(opportunityId, {
pnl: 25.50,
exitPrice: 0.55,
exitTimestamp: Date.now(),
});// Get statistics
const stats = await finder.getAnalytics({
period: '30d',
});
console.log(`Total opportunities: ${stats.total}`);
console.log(`Taken: ${stats.taken}`);
console.log(`Win rate: ${(stats.winRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
console.log(`Total P&L: $${stats.totalPnl.toLocaleString()}`);
console.log(`Avg edge: ${stats.avgEdge.toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(`By platform pair:`);
for (const [pair, data] of Object.entries(stats.byPlatformPair)) {
console.log(` ${pair}: ${data.count} opps, $${data.pnl} P&L`);
}// Model execution risk
const risk = await finder.modelRisk(opportunityId);
console.log(`Execution risk:`);
console.log(` Fill probability: ${(risk.fillProbability * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
console.log(` Expected slippage: ${risk.expectedSlippage.toFixed(2)}%`);
console.log(` Time to fill: ${risk.estimatedTimeToFill}s`);
console.log(` Counterparty risk: ${risk.counterpartyRisk}`);
// Estimate execution
const estimate = await finder.estimateExecution(opportunityId, {
size: 500,
});
console.log(`Execution estimate for $500:`);
console.log(` Expected fill: $${estimate.expectedFill}`);
console.log(` Expected cost: $${estimate.expectedCost}`);
console.log(` Net edge after costs: ${estimate.netEdge.toFixed(2)}%`);Opportunities are scored 0-100 based on:
| Factor | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Edge % | 35% | Raw arbitrage spread |
| Liquidity | 25% | Available volume |
| Confidence | 25% | Match quality |
| Execution | 15% | Platform reliability |
Markets are matched using:
// Configure matching
finder.setMatchingConfig({
minTextSimilarity: 0.8,
minEmbeddingSimilarity: 0.85,
useManualLinksFirst: true,
});e71a5f6
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