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news-reaction-failure-analyzer

Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

72

Quality

88%

Does it follow best practices?

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SecuritybySnyk

Low

Low-risk findings worth noting

SKILL.md
Quality
Evals
Security

Quality

Content

85%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Reviews the quality of instructions and guidance provided to agents. Good implementation is clear, handles edge cases, and produces reliable results.

The body is a well-organized, actionable workflow with explicit fail-closed validation checkpoints and appropriately delegated one-level-deep references. It is concise for its density, with only minor tightening and inline-example opportunities.

DimensionReasoningScore

Conciseness

Mostly efficient and free of generic concept explanations Claude already knows; the statistical-rationale and residual-risk paragraphs earn their tokens, though the guardrails section is dense and could be trimmed slightly.

4 / 5

Actionability

Provides a concrete, runnable CLI invocation with real flags and documents output JSON/Markdown schemas and fields; the only minor gap is the events-JSON shape being delegated to the reference template rather than shown inline.

4 / 5

Workflow Clarity

A clear four-phase sequence with explicit fail-closed validation checkpoints — 'refuses fail-closed with a specific reason', 'never raises an exception... exits 0 with a documented reason', and the INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE guardrails — giving strong feedback loops for a data-validation-heavy skill.

5 / 5

Progressive Disclosure

A well-structured overview that signals one-level-deep references to real bundle files (news-failure-patterns.md, price-source-map.md) and scripts, with a 'When to Load References' section guiding navigation; methodology detail is appropriately split out rather than inlined.

5 / 5

Total

18

/

20

Passed

Description

92%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Based on the skill's description, can an agent find and select it at the right time? Clear, specific descriptions lead to better discovery.

The description is specific, third-person, and explicitly pairs concrete capabilities with clear natural-language trigger phrases, covering both 'what' and 'when' comprehensively. It is highly distinctive with low conflict risk.

DimensionReasoningScore

Specificity

Lists multiple concrete actions — 'Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report', 'fetches the underlying price series', 'produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict' via a 'drift-significance test' — matching the comprehensive-coverage anchor.

5 / 5

Completeness

Explicitly answers both what ('Judge whether a market FAILED to react...') and when ('Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news...'), matching the concrete-trigger-phrases anchor 5.

5 / 5

Trigger Term Quality

Includes natural user phrases like 'shrugged off' good/bad news, 'check news-failure confirmation', and 'run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market'; good coverage but a few common synonyms are absent, so it sits just below the comprehensive anchor 5.

4 / 5

Distinctiveness Conflict Risk

Occupies a clear niche — 'step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process' for news-failure confirmation on crowded markets — with distinct triggers and minimal overlap with other skills.

5 / 5

Total

19

/

20

Passed

Validation

100%

Checks the skill against the spec for correct structure and formatting. All validation checks must pass before discovery and implementation can be scored.

Validation16 / 16 Passed

Validation for skill structure

No warnings or errors.

Repository
tradermonty/claude-trading-skills
Reviewed

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