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portfolio-pdlc-simulate

Run a deterministic Monte Carlo simulation of flow through the portfolio PDLC — baseline from the workspace's own flow history, plus what-if scenarios (WIP limit changes, arrival-rate shaping, dependency-tax reduction from platform extraction or team reorganization). Use as the Discovery move for improvement bets before anyone changes policies or reorganizes teams, or to set Service Level Expectations. Advanced member of the portfolio-pdlc family; produces confidence-labeled forecasts, never point predictions.

Quality

94%

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SKILL.md
Quality
Evals
Security

Quality

Content

92%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Reviews the quality of instructions and guidance provided to agents. Good implementation is clear, handles edge cases, and produces reliable results.

An exemplary dense, operator-grade skill body: executable commands, a complete scenario-file example that doubles as knob documentation, explicit validation checkpoints (noise-gated deltas, priors dialogue, quality gates), and disciplined deferral of detail to the script's --help. The only flaw is minor: one abbreviated command path and no sample output block.

Suggestions

Spell out the full script path in step 3's command instead of the '.../portfolio_sim.py' abbreviation so both commands are copy-paste ready.

Include a short sample of the script's output table (with the history/prior labels and the printed run-to-run noise) so readers know what 'reading it like a portfolio manager' looks like before running.

DimensionReasoningScore

Conciseness

Lean and efficient throughout — it never explains concepts Claude already knows (no Monte Carlo, percentile, or agile primers), and the scenario-file comments earn their tokens by encoding non-obvious model semantics ('history already contains today's tax, so execute durations scale by dependency_tax / dependency_tax_current'). Not 4: no section is trimmable padding; stylistic phrasing ('Read it like a portfolio manager, not a lab') carries directive weight.

5 / 5

Actionability

Mostly executable: a full command in step 1 ('python3 <this-repo>/skills/portfolio-pdlc/scripts/portfolio_sim.py <workspace>') and a complete, copy-paste-ready scenario file with exact knob names. Not 5: step 3's command abbreviates the path ('python3 .../portfolio_sim.py <workspace> --scenario …') so it is not literally copy-paste ready, and no sample output is shown.

4 / 5

Workflow Clarity

Five clearly sequenced steps with explicit validation checkpoints and feedback loops: the conditional priors dialogue when 'most stages run on priors', the run-to-run noise comparison in step 4 ('A delta smaller than the run-to-run noise… is a legitimate, decision-relevant finding'), the fixed-seed/--seed noise protocol, and a Quality Gates checklist for closure. Matches the anchor-5 pattern of sequence + validation + checklist.

5 / 5

Progressive Disclosure

Well-organized overview structure (Outcome → When → Workflow → format → Rules → Quality Gates → References) with detail deferred one level deep: flag details live in the script's '--help' and the References section clearly signals the script and the sibling skill. No content is inlined that belongs in a separate file — the scenario format is needed for the core workflow.

5 / 5

Total

19

/

20

Passed

Description

92%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Based on the skill's description, can an agent find and select it at the right time? Clear, specific descriptions lead to better discovery.

A highly specific, well-scoped description that explicitly states what the skill does and when to use it, with concrete scenario types and honest framing ('never point predictions'). Trigger vocabulary is strong for the flow-agile practitioner audience, though a few natural synonyms (cycle time, throughput) would widen it.

DimensionReasoningScore

Specificity

Lists multiple concrete actions with comprehensive coverage: 'Run a deterministic Monte Carlo simulation of flow through the portfolio PDLC — baseline from the workspace's own flow history, plus what-if scenarios (WIP limit changes, arrival-rate shaping, dependency-tax reduction from platform extraction or team reorganization)', plus 'to set Service Level Expectations' and 'produces confidence-labeled forecasts, never point predictions'. Not 4: coverage of the skill's capabilities has no gaps.

5 / 5

Completeness

Explicitly answers both: what ('Run a deterministic Monte Carlo simulation… produces confidence-labeled forecasts, never point predictions') and when ('Use as the Discovery move for improvement bets before anyone changes policies or reorganizes teams, or to set Service Level Expectations') — a 'Use as…' clause with concrete trigger phrases. The missing-'Use when' cap does not apply; not 4 because the when-clause is already explicit and specific.

5 / 5

Trigger Term Quality

Good natural-term coverage — 'Monte Carlo simulation', 'WIP limit', 'what-if scenarios', 'Service Level Expectations', 'platform extraction', 'team reorganization', 'improvement bets' — that the target user would plausibly say. Not 5: common variations a user might naturally say ('cycle time', 'throughput', 'forecast lead time') are absent; not 3: coverage goes well beyond 'some relevant keywords'.

4 / 5

Distinctiveness Conflict Risk

Clear niche (deterministic flow simulation / SLE forecasting for a portfolio PDLC) with distinct triggers; 'Advanced member of the portfolio-pdlc family' explicitly positions it against siblings rather than blurring them. Not 4: overlap risk with related skills is minimal given the simulation/discovery-specific triggers.

5 / 5

Total

19

/

20

Passed

Validation

100%

Checks the skill against the spec for correct structure and formatting. All validation checks must pass before discovery and implementation can be scored.

Validation — 16 / 16 Passed

Validation for skill structure

No warnings or errors.

Repository

yyeret/portfolio-pdlc

Path

skills/portfolio-pdlc-simulate/SKILL.md

Reviewed

Table of Contents

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