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earnings-forecast

盈利预测与一致预期分析(自上而下/自下而上预测法/SUE/PEAD/分析师预期修正),捕捉业绩超预期交易机会。

56

Quality

71%

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tessl review fix ./agent/src/skills/earnings-forecast/SKILL.md
SKILL.md
Quality
Evals
Security

Quality

Content

65%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Reviews the quality of instructions and guidance provided to agents. Good implementation is clear, handles edge cases, and produces reliable results.

A dense, well-structured A股 earnings-surprise playbook with genuinely concrete formulas, thresholds, calendar timing, and an output template — its main weaknesses are the absence of inline validation checkpoints in the four-step workflow and a monolithic single-file layout where per-method detail (each of the five core concepts) would sit better in one-level-deep reference files. No bundle files exist, so progressive disclosure rests entirely on the in-file organization.

Suggestions

Insert explicit validation checkpoints into the four-step framework, e.g. after step 2 verify '覆盖分析师 ≥ 3 家且历史偏差 ≥ 8 个季度,否则降级为定性判断' before computing SUE.

Split each 核心概念 (Top-Down, Bottom-Up, SUE, PEAD, 预期修正动量) into one-level-deep reference files (e.g. references/pead.md) and keep SKILL.md as a concise overview with clearly signaled pointers.

Replace the comment-style pseudocode blocks with runnable snippets (data retrieval + SUE computation) or explicitly justify the formula-as-pseudocode style, to close the gap toward fully copy-paste-ready guidance.

DimensionReasoningScore

Conciseness

The body is dense and operational — tables, formulas, thresholds, and a config dict with almost no filler prose, and the finance content it does explain (A股 PEAD holding windows, disclosure calendar, short-selling constraints) is market-specific rather than what Claude already knows. It is not a 5 because sections like the 白酒/贵州茅台 top-down worked example and the generic profit-margin bullet points could be trimmed.

4 / 5

Actionability

Concrete, executable-level guidance dominates: exact formulas (SUE, ERM, dispersion with computational definitions), explicit thresholds (SUE > +1.5, hold 40 trading days, stop_loss -0.08), a complete portfolio config dict, an A股 disclosure calendar, and a fill-in output template. It stops short of 5 because the Python blocks are annotated formulas/pseudocode rather than copy-paste runnable code (no data-retrieval or computation pipeline), though as an instruction-oriented analysis skill the per-scoring-note absence of runnable code is only a minor gap.

4 / 5

Workflow Clarity

The '盈利分析四步法' gives a clear ordered sequence (构建预测 → 获取一致预期 → 计算偏差 → 信号生成) reinforced by the calendar and output template, matching the anchor 'steps listed but validation gaps; checkpoints missing or implicit'. Preconditions such as 'SUE计算需要至少8个季度的历史预测偏差数据' exist only in the trailing 注意事项 rather than as inline validation checkpoints, and there are no feedback loops (e.g., re-check dispersion or coverage before acting on a signal) — so it does not reach 4, though the sequence is coherent enough to stay above 2.

3 / 5

Progressive Disclosure

There is good in-file structure (clear 概述/核心概念/分析框架/输出格式/注意事项 headers), but the skill is ~195 lines with five substantial method sections (Top-Down, Bottom-Up, SUE, PEAD, revision momentum) all inlined in a monolithic SKILL.md with no references/, scripts/, or assets/ files and no pointers to split-out detail. This matches 'some structure but content that should be separate is inline'; it is above 2 because section organization and navigation within the file are genuinely clear.

3 / 5

Total

14

/

20

Passed

Description

66%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Based on the skill's description, can an agent find and select it at the right time? Clear, specific descriptions lead to better discovery.

A specific, jargon-appropriate description that clearly states what the skill does and its trading purpose, but it omits any explicit 'Use when...' trigger guidance, which both caps completeness and slightly limits trigger discoverability. Adding an explicit trigger clause and a few more natural synonyms (财报, 业绩预告, EPS) would lift it into the top tier.

Suggestions

Append an explicit trigger clause, e.g. '适用于分析财报披露(业绩预告/季报/年报)、计算盈余超预期信号、或构建PEAD/预期修正交易策略时使用。'

Add natural synonyms users actually say — 财报/业绩预告/盈余超预期/EPS — to broaden trigger matching.

Optionally rephrase the parenthetical method list as full capability statements (e.g. '构建自上而下与自下而上盈利预测,计算SUE并跟踪分析师预期修正') so each method reads as a concrete action.

DimensionReasoningScore

Specificity

The description names the domain ('盈利预测与一致预期分析') and lists several concrete methods ('自上而下/自下而上预测法/SUE/PEAD/分析师预期修正') plus a concrete purpose ('捕捉业绩超预期交易机会'). It falls just short of a 5 because the actions are compressed into a parenthetical method list rather than multiple fully expressed capabilities, and coverage of the body's actual capabilities (e.g., portfolio construction, earnings-calendar timing) is partial.

4 / 5

Completeness

The 'what' is clear (earnings forecasting and consensus-expectation analysis with named methods, for capturing earnings surprises), but there is no 'Use when...' clause or equivalent trigger guidance — the trailing purpose phrase only weakly implies when to invoke it. Per the judging guideline, a missing explicit 'when' caps completeness at 3; it is above 2 because the 'what' is specific, not vague.

3 / 5

Trigger Term Quality

Natural terms a Chinese quant/fundamental user would say are present: '盈利预测', '一致预期', '业绩超预期', '分析师预期修正', alongside technical terms SUE and PEAD. Not a 5 because common variations like '财报', '业绩预告', '盈余', or 'EPS' are missing, so synonym coverage is incomplete.

4 / 5

Distinctiveness Conflict Risk

The focus on earnings-surprise/PEAD trading signals carves out a fairly distinct niche with domain-specific triggers. It is not a 5 because it could overlap with sibling quantitative-analysis or valuation skills in the same bundle that share terms like '盈利预测' and '一致预期'.

4 / 5

Total

15

/

20

Passed

Validation

93%

Checks the skill against the spec for correct structure and formatting. All validation checks must pass before discovery and implementation can be scored.

Validation — 15 / 16 Passed

Validation for skill structure

CriteriaDescriptionResult

frontmatter_unknown_keys

Unknown frontmatter key(s) found; consider removing or moving to metadata

Warning

Total

15

/

16

Passed

Repository
HKUDS/Vibe-Trading
Reviewed

Table of Contents

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