Token Unlock & Treasury Analysis

def assess_unlock_impact(unlock_amount, circulating_supply, daily_volume, recipient_type):
    """
    Assess the market impact of an upcoming token unlock.
    """
    # Unlock as % of circulating supply
    supply_pct = unlock_amount / circulating_supply * 100

    # Unlock as multiple of daily volume
    volume_multiple = unlock_amount / daily_volume

    # Base impact score
    if supply_pct > 10:
        base_impact = "critical"      # >10% of supply = very high impact
    elif supply_pct > 5:
        base_impact = "high"
    elif supply_pct > 2:
        base_impact = "medium"
    elif supply_pct > 0.5:
        base_impact = "low"
    else:
        base_impact = "negligible"

    # Adjust for recipient type (who receives the tokens)
    recipient_multiplier = {
        "team": 0.7,         # Team sells ~70% within 6 months historically
        "investor_seed": 0.8, # VCs must return capital, sell aggressively
        "investor_later": 0.6,
        "ecosystem": 0.3,    # Ecosystem tokens often re-staked or used
        "treasury": 0.2,     # Treasury rarely dumps (governance constraints)
        "community": 0.5,    # Mixed behavior
    }

    effective_sell_pressure = supply_pct * recipient_multiplier.get(recipient_type, 0.5)

    # Volume absorption capacity
    if volume_multiple > 5:
        absorption = "illiquid"       # Market cannot absorb easily
    elif volume_multiple > 2:
        absorption = "difficult"
    elif volume_multiple > 0.5:
        absorption = "manageable"
    else:
        absorption = "easily_absorbed"

    return {
        "supply_impact_pct": supply_pct,
        "base_impact": base_impact,
        "effective_sell_pct": effective_sell_pressure,
        "volume_absorption": absorption,
    }

treasury_health = {
    "total_value_usd": 500_000_000,       # Total treasury value
    "runway_months": 36,                   # Treasury / monthly burn
    "diversification": {
        "native_token_pct": 60,            # % held in own token (risky)
        "stablecoins_pct": 25,             # USDC/USDT/DAI (safe)
        "eth_btc_pct": 10,                 # Blue-chip crypto
        "other_pct": 5,                    # Other assets
    },
    "monthly_burn_usd": 5_000_000,         # Operating expenses per month
    "revenue_coverage": 0.6,               # Revenue / burn ratio
}

def treasury_signal(health):
    # Runway assessment
    if health["runway_months"] < 12:
        runway_signal = "critical"         # Less than 1 year of funding
    elif health["runway_months"] < 24:
        runway_signal = "concerning"
    else:
        runway_signal = "healthy"

    # Diversification assessment
    native_pct = health["diversification"]["native_token_pct"]
    if native_pct > 80:
        diversity_signal = "concentrated_risk"  # Treasury value crashes with token price
    elif native_pct > 50:
        diversity_signal = "moderate_risk"
    else:
        diversity_signal = "diversified"        # Healthy treasury management

    # Revenue sustainability
    if health["revenue_coverage"] > 1.0:
        revenue_signal = "self_sustaining"      # Revenue covers all expenses
    elif health["revenue_coverage"] > 0.5:
        revenue_signal = "partially_funded"
    else:
        revenue_signal = "treasury_dependent"   # Fully reliant on treasury

    return runway_signal, diversity_signal, revenue_signal

def emission_analysis(token):
    """Analyze ongoing token emission sustainability."""
    # Monthly emission rate
    monthly_new_tokens = token.monthly_unlock + token.staking_rewards + token.mining_rewards
    monthly_emission_pct = monthly_new_tokens / token.circulating_supply * 100

    # Inflation-adjusted real yield
    staking_yield_nominal = token.staking_apy
    inflation_rate = monthly_emission_pct * 12  # Annualized
    real_yield = staking_yield_nominal - inflation_rate

    # Assessment
    if monthly_emission_pct > 5:
        emission_verdict = "hyperinflation"    # Unsustainable
    elif monthly_emission_pct > 2:
        emission_verdict = "high_inflation"    # Significant dilution
    elif monthly_emission_pct > 0.5:
        emission_verdict = "moderate"          # Manageable
    else:
        emission_verdict = "low_emission"      # Minimal dilution

    if real_yield < 0:
        yield_verdict = "negative_real_yield"  # Staking rewards < inflation = value destruction
    else:
        yield_verdict = "positive_real_yield"

    return emission_verdict, yield_verdict, real_yield

## Token Unlock & Treasury Analysis — [Protocol/Token]

### Tokenomics Overview
- **Total supply**: X,XXX,XXX,XXX
- **Circulating supply**: X,XXX,XXX,XXX (X% of total)
- **Fully diluted valuation (FDV)**: $X.XB
- **Market cap / FDV ratio**: X.X% (lower = more future dilution)

### Upcoming Unlocks (next 90 days)
| Date | Amount | % of Circ. | Recipient | Impact |
|------|--------|-----------|-----------|--------|
| YYYY-MM-DD | X,XXX,XXX | X.X% | Team | High |
| YYYY-MM-DD | X,XXX,XXX | X.X% | Investor | Medium |

### Emission Rate
- **Monthly new supply**: X.X% of circulating
- **Annualized inflation**: X.X%
- **Staking nominal yield**: X.X%
- **Real yield (yield - inflation)**: X.X%
- **Verdict**: [hyperinflation / high / moderate / low]

### Treasury Health
- **Total value**: $XXX M
- **Composition**: X% native token, X% stablecoins, X% ETH/BTC
- **Monthly burn**: $X.X M
- **Runway**: XX months
- **Revenue coverage**: X.X%
- **Diversification risk**: [concentrated / moderate / diversified]

### Sell Pressure Forecast
- **Next 30 days**: [X tokens unlocking → $X.XM at current price → X days of volume]
- **Next 90 days**: [summary]
- **Absorption capacity**: [easily / manageable / difficult / illiquid]

### Signal
- **Short-term (pre-unlock)**: [avoid / reduce / hold / accumulate]
- **Medium-term (post-unlock)**: [recovery expected / persistent pressure / unclear]
- **Long-term (tokenomics health)**: [sustainable / concerning / unsustainable]