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commercial-forecaster

Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones. Every output explicitly names the conversion rate used, the data window, and the weighting choice. For Head of Commercial, RevOps, VP Sales, and CRO at quarterly forecast or board prep. NOT financial close (see finance/financial-analysis). NOT strategic CRO hiring/territory (see c-level-advisor/cro-advisor). NOT pricing (see sibling pricing-strategist).

71

Quality

89%

Does it follow best practices?

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SKILL.md
Quality
Evals
Security

Quality

Content

75%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Reviews the quality of instructions and guidance provided to agents. Good implementation is clear, handles edge cases, and produces reliable results.

A strong, highly actionable body: copy-paste-ready commands verified against real scripts, a clear five-step workflow, and well-organized one-level-deep references. Its weakness is redundancy — the exclusion list and the core assumption-block rule are each stated multiple times, and the grilling-question library is inline content that belongs in a reference file.

Suggestions

State the 'assumption block is non-optional' hard rule once (Assumptions section) and reference it elsewhere instead of repeating the 'theatre' formulation four times across Step 2, Step 5, Assumptions, Anti-patterns, and the grilling library.

Merge the 'Do not use for' list and the 'Distinct from' section into one boundary section — the second currently restates the first with only marginal added rationale.

Move the 7-question forcing-question library into a references file (e.g., references/forcing_questions.md) and keep a one-line pointer plus the sequencing rule in SKILL.md, matching the pattern used for the canon files.

DimensionReasoningScore

Conciseness

Mostly efficient and free of explanations of concepts Claude already knows, but with clear tightening opportunities: the skill-exclusion list appears twice ('Do not use for:' in When to use, then restated across 'Distinct from'), and the 'assumption block is theatre' rule is repeated at least four times ('The forecast becomes theatre', 'the slide is theatre', 'A forecast without a disclosed assumption block is theatre', 'No assumption block = the slide is theatre'). Not anchor 2 — the body is not padded with generic explanation and each section carries domain judgment — but more than the 'minor trim' of anchor 4.

3 / 5

Actionability

Fully executable, copy-paste-ready commands for all three workflows ('scripts/bookings_forecaster.py --input intake.json --profile saas --output markdown', etc.), verified against the actual scripts — '--help' and '--sample' work on all three as claimed, and the intake template bridges to 'a single JSON file that feeds all three scripts' with concrete field examples. The commands cover the common cases end to end.

5 / 5

Workflow Clarity

Five clearly sequenced steps (intake → bookings forecast → cohort projection → funnel confidence → deck assembly), each naming its script and expected output, plus an explicit ordering rule in the grilling library ('After all 7 are answered, invoke bookings_forecaster.py → cohort_arr_projector.py → funnel_confidence_scorer.py in sequence'). Falls short of anchor 5 because there are no explicit validation checkpoints on the outputs (e.g., verifying intake.json parses before running, or confirming the pipeline-coverage ratio before assembling the deck) — the safety signals are surfaced by the scripts but not gated by the workflow. The destructive/batch cap does not apply since these are read-only analyses.

4 / 5

Progressive Disclosure

Good structure: a References section lists three one-level-deep files (verified: they exist and contain no nested references), scripts are inventoried, and 'See forecast_anti_patterns.md' links one inline. Short of anchor 5 because the ~30-line 'Forcing-question library (Matt Pocock grill discipline)' is inlined in SKILL.md where the skill's own pattern (canon material → references/) suggests it belongs in a reference file, and the Assumptions/Anti-patterns detail could be similarly split.

4 / 5

Total

16

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20

Passed

Description

100%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Based on the skill's description, can an agent find and select it at the right time? Clear, specific descriptions lead to better discovery.

An exemplary description: third-person, concrete multi-action capability statement, comprehensive natural trigger terms, an explicit use-when clause with audience, and explicit NOT-boundaries against three adjacent skills. It is long for a description, but every clause carries trigger or boundary work rather than padding.

DimensionReasoningScore

Specificity

Multiple specific concrete actions in third person: 'Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers', 'projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts', 'scores per-stage funnel confidence', plus the output discipline 'Every output explicitly names the conversion rate used, the data window, and the weighting choice'. Coverage spans all three workflows with no gaps, matching the comprehensive-action anchor rather than the 'minor gaps' anchor at 4.

5 / 5

Completeness

Explicitly answers both: what ('Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR...; scores per-stage funnel confidence') and when ('Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection... For Head of Commercial, RevOps, VP Sales, and CRO at quarterly forecast or board prep'). Both are concrete, matching the anchor-5 example structure.

5 / 5

Trigger Term Quality

Comprehensive natural-term coverage with synonyms: 'quarterly bookings forecast', 'ARR projection', 'pipeline forecast', 'NRR projection', 'commit/best-case/pipe-only board number', 'quarterly forecast or board prep' — the exact phrases a CRO/RevOps user would say. Nothing material is missing that the anchor-4 'a few natural terms missing' example would penalize.

5 / 5

Distinctiveness Conflict Risk

Clear niche with explicit negative triggers: 'NOT financial close (see finance/financial-analysis). NOT strategic CRO hiring/territory (see c-level-advisor/cro-advisor). NOT pricing (see sibling pricing-strategist)'. These boundaries make wrong-skill triggering unlikely, fitting the minimal-conflict anchor rather than the minor-overlap anchor at 4.

5 / 5

Total

20

/

20

Passed

Validation

93%

Checks the skill against the spec for correct structure and formatting. All validation checks must pass before discovery and implementation can be scored.

Validation — 15 / 16 Passed

Validation for skill structure

CriteriaDescriptionResult

frontmatter_unknown_keys

Unknown frontmatter key(s) found; consider removing or moving to metadata

Warning

Total

15

/

16

Passed

Repository

alirezarezvani/claude-skills

Path

commercial/skills/commercial-forecaster/SKILL.md

Reviewed

Table of Contents

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