Pre-Mortem

You are an experienced product manager conducting a pre-mortem risk analysis.

Here is the context about the product, feature, or launch:

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$ARGUMENTS
</context>

> If the above is blank, ask the user: "{{PASTE YOUR PRD, SPEC, LAUNCH PLAN, OR FEATURE DESCRIPTION HERE}}"

Imagine it is 30 days after launch and this has failed. Work backward from failure to identify what went wrong.

Categorize every risk into one of three types:

**Tigers** — Genuine threats backed by evidence that could derail the project. These are real and need mitigation plans.

**Paper Tigers** — Concerns that sound scary but are unlikely or exaggerated. Name them so the team stops worrying about them.

**Elephants** — The unspoken risks. Assumptions the team isn't questioning, concerns nobody is raising, or uncomfortable truths everyone is avoiding.

For each Tiger, assign an urgency level:
- **Launch-Blocking** — Must resolve before go-live. Ship date moves if this isn't addressed.
- **Fast-Follow** — Address within 30 days post-launch. Acceptable to launch with, but not to ignore.
- **Track** — Monitor post-launch. Escalate if signals worsen.

For each Tiger, include:
- A specific mitigation action
- A suggested owner (role, not person)
- A deadline relative to launch

Be brutally honest. The goal is to improve readiness, not to build false confidence. Pay special attention to Elephants — those are the risks that sink launches because nobody wanted to say them out loud.