Conciseness

Nearly every token carries non-obvious, platform-specific information (overround measurements, ±1.9pp error bars, '--marketId, not --marketTopicId', 'realizedPnl; pnl comes back null') and no space is spent explaining concepts Claude already knows. Not 5 because a few points are repeated across sections — 'a hit rate is not an edge' appears in the Read-this-first box, the priced-in discussion, and Known limitations, and the unverifiability figures appear twice.

Actionability

Fully executable throughout: exact commands ('python3 backtest.py fetch --symbol BTCUSDT --interval 1h'), copy-paste launchd/systemd unit files, pre-flight check commands, concrete hook signatures ('estimate_probability(rnd, ctx) -> float | None'), and config tables with a 'How to decide it' column. Matches the copy-paste-ready level-5 anchor.

Workflow Clarity

The six-step Getting started sequence is explicitly ordered with validation checkpoints that can kill the idea ('Steps 1 and 3 cost nothing and either can kill the idea'), a stop condition ('A gap near zero… stop there'), dry-run before live, a live gate ack file, and error-recovery feedback loops (back-off 15s→300s, quote refetch, FAILED-order stake return). Despite handling live capital, validation is thorough — matches the level-5 anchor.

Progressive Disclosure

Section headers are clear and the bundle scripts (updown.py, backtest.py) referenced in the body are real files, but there are no reference files at all: the launchd/systemd unit files, platform behavior notes, calibration tables, and the full configuration reference are all inlined in one ~450-line SKILL.md. This sits between the level-2 anchor (content that belongs in separate files is inlined) and level-4 (most content appropriately placed) — structure is good but the split is missing entirely.

Specificity

The description enumerates the full pipeline in concrete actions — 'Wires round enumeration, market screening, two-step ordering, fill and settlement confirmation and redemption into one runnable pipeline, and exposes every probability judgement as a hook' — covering every stage comprehensively. Not level 4 because the action list is complete for the domain rather than having gaps.

Completeness

Explicitly answers both what (the enumerated pipeline wiring) and when ('Trigger on: …' with concrete trigger phrases), plus an explicit negative boundary ('NOT for: single manual predictions…'). Matches the level-5 anchor: both questions answered clearly with concrete trigger phrases.

Trigger Term Quality

'up down prediction, BTC up or down, prediction market bot, hourly prediction rounds, trade up/down automatically, prediction market strategy, prediction calibration, redeem winnings automatically' gives good natural-phrase coverage. Not 5 because a few plausible phrasings are missing (e.g. 'Binance prediction market', 'auto trade up down rounds'); not 3 because the eight terms are natural user phrasings, not jargon.

Distinctiveness Conflict Risk

Clear niche — recurring BTC Up/Down prediction-market rounds on Binance — with distinct triggers, and the 'NOT for' clause actively disambiguates against the three sibling skills most likely to collide. Minimal conflict risk, matching the level-5 anchor.