us-market-bubble-detector

Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative data-driven analysis using the revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework v2.1. Prioritizes objective metrics (Put/Call, VIX, margin debt, breadth, IPO data) over subjective impressions. Features strict qualitative adjustment criteria with confirmation bias prevention. Supports practical investment decisions with mandatory data collection and mechanical scoring. Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing.

Quality

86%

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Securityby

Low

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Quality

Content

81%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Reviews the quality of instructions and guidance provided to agents. Good implementation is clear, handles edge cases, and produces reliable results.

A highly actionable, well-sequenced workflow with explicit validation checkpoints and well-organized one-level references. Its main weakness is redundant v2.1 revision meta-commentary that inflates length without adding operational value.

Suggestions

Remove the closing 'Summary: Essence of v2.1 Revision' section and the inline 'Key Change in v2.1' / 'REVISED v2.1' markers; state the current rules once in each phase rather than re-explaining the v2.0→v2.1 delta throughout.

Move version history and revision rationale to a changelog in a reference file (e.g., implementation_guide.md) so the SKILL.md body stays focused on the current operating procedure.

Offload the detailed 'Recommended Actions by Bubble Stage' and 'Composite Conditions for Short-Selling' blocks into quick_reference_en.md, keeping only the phase score thresholds inline.

Dimension	Reasoning	Score
Conciseness	The core Phase 1–4 scoring tables and data sources are dense and do not over-explain concepts Claude already knows, but the v2.1 revision meta-commentary is restated multiple times (intro checklist, inline 'REVISED v2.1' markers, 'Key Change' subsection, and the entire closing 'Summary: Essence of v2.1 Revision' section), which is noticeable padding that could be tightened.	3 / 5
Actionability	Provides fully executable guidance: specific numeric thresholds for every indicator (e.g., 'P/C < 0.70 = 2 points', 'VIX < 12 AND within 5% of 52-week high'), concrete data sources with URLs, and explicit valid/invalid evidence examples that cover the common cases.	5 / 5
Workflow Clarity	A strict Phase 1 → 2 → 3 → 4 sequence with explicit validation gates ('Do NOT proceed without Phase 1 data'), a confirmation-bias prevention checklist, self-check questions, and an implementation checklist provide clear feedback loops for error recovery.	5 / 5
Progressive Disclosure	Five real reference files are well-signaled with load conditions ('First use: Load implementation_guide.md') and stay one level deep, but SKILL.md itself is a large near-monolith holding the full framework, recommended-actions-by-stage, and composite conditions that could partly live in quick_reference.	4 / 5
	Total	17 / 20 Passed

Description

92%Weight 40%Scale 1-5

Based on the skill's description, can an agent find and select it at the right time? Clear, specific descriptions lead to better discovery.

A strong, specific, third-person description that clearly states both capability and trigger conditions with named quantitative indicators. Its only gap is slightly limited trigger-term synonym coverage.

Dimension	Reasoning	Score
Specificity	Lists multiple concrete actions ('Evaluates market bubble risk', 'Prioritizes objective metrics (Put/Call, VIX, margin debt, breadth, IPO data)', 'mandatory data collection and mechanical scoring') with comprehensive coverage and specific named indicators, all in third-person voice.	5 / 5
Completeness	It explicitly answers both 'what' (quantitative data-driven bubble-risk evaluation with named metrics and mechanical scoring) and 'when' ('Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing') with concrete trigger phrases.	5 / 5
Trigger Term Quality	The 'Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing' clause gives good keyword coverage, but common natural synonyms a user might say ('are we in a bubble', 'market crash', 'overheated market', 'euphoria') are missing, so it sits just below comprehensive.	4 / 5
Distinctiveness Conflict Risk	It carves a clear niche (Minsky/Kindleberger bubble-risk detection with specific named metrics) with distinct triggers, making overlap with unrelated skills minimal.	5 / 5
	Total	19 / 20 Passed

Validation

93%

Warnings & errors only

Checks the skill against the spec for correct structure and formatting. All validation checks must pass before discovery and implementation can be scored.

Validation — 15 / 16 Passed

Validation for skill structure

Criteria	Description	Result
skill_md_line_count	SKILL.md is long (546 lines); consider splitting into references/ and linking	Warning

	Total	15 / 16 Passed

Repository: tradermonty/claude-trading-skills
Path: skills/us-market-bubble-detector/SKILL.md
Commit: 51c7907

Reviewed: ~7 hours ago

Table of Contents

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