testland/test-effort-estimation

Turns a list of testable areas plus a change-shape distribution into a PERT three-point test effort estimate, reporting every row as a range around the expected value rather than a single number, requiring a named assumptions ledger across six mandatory categories, and recommending a per-layer ownership split across developer, automation, and exploratory roles. Owns the hours and the ownership recommendation only: it consumes a change-shape distribution rather than producing one, and it does not choose which tests to run or how deep coverage should go. Use when an epic or release has been broken into testable areas and someone is about to commit test capacity for a sprint.

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Test effort estimate output template

Name: testland/test-effort-estimation
Rating: 75.2 (1 reviews)
Author: testland

Deep reference for the test-effort-estimation SKILL.md. The full Markdown document the skill emits, filled for the "Promo codes at checkout" epic from the worked example. Copy the section order; keep the "distribution, not a commitment" line and the Method section even when they feel redundant - they are what stop a reader from turning E into a delivery date.

Emit one Markdown document with these sections in order.

## Test effort estimate - Promo codes at checkout - 2026-07-19

**Total expected effort:** 33.6 h
**Range (independent rows):** 30.1 to 37.1 h
**Range (shared-dependency worst case):** 25.6 to 41.6 h

This is a distribution, not a commitment. It is invalidated, not padded, if any
assumption below changes.

### Effort by area and layer

| # | Area | Layer | Risk | a | m | b | E | Range | Owner | Assumptions |
|---|------|-------|-----:|--:|--:|--:|--:|-------|-------|-------------|
| 1 | Checkout flow | Service | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 8.7 | 6.7 - 10.7 | Automation | A1, A2, A4, A6 |
| 2 | Checkout flow | UI / E2E | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5.3 | 4.0 - 6.6 | Automation | A1, A2, A5 |
| 3 | Discount-code API | Service | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4.3 | 3.3 - 5.3 | Automation | A2, A3 |
| 4 | Discount rules | Unit | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5.3 | 4.3 - 6.3 | Developer | A1, A3 |
| 5 | Promo schema | Data checks | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 6.7 | 4.7 - 8.7 | Developer + data | A2, A4, A6 |
| 6 | Checkout | Exploratory | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.3 | 2.6 - 4.0 | Manual tester | A1, A6 |

### Assumptions ledger

| ID | Category | Statement | Rows affected |
|----|----------|-----------|---------------|
| A1 | Scope boundary | Stories 12 to 15 only; story 16 (dark mode) excluded | 1, 2, 4, 6 |
| A2 | Environment | Staging available from sprint day 2 | 1, 2, 3, 5 |
| A3 | Test data | Fixture generator covers all discount-code cases | 3, 4 |
| A4 | Dependency | Payment provider sandbox contract unchanged this sprint | 1, 5 |
| A5 | Skill | One automation engineer with browser-automation experience | 2 |
| A6 | Risk rating | Checkout and promo schema rated risk-3: real payments, irreversible migration | 1, 2, 5, 6 |

All six mandatory categories present.

### Ownership summary

| Role | Rows | Expected hours | Capacity | Flag |
|------|------|---------------:|---------:|------|
| Developer (unit + data checks) | 4, 5 | 12.0 | 16 | ok |
| Automation engineer (service + E2E) | 1, 2, 3 | 18.3 | 14 | OVER by 4.3 h |
| Manual tester (exploratory) | 6 | 3.3 | 8 | ok |

### Capacity flags

Automation engineer is over-allocated by 4.3 h. Options: move row 3 to the
developer who owns the discount-code endpoint, or descope row 2 to the single
happy path and cover the variants in row 6.

### Method

Three-point PERT per row: E = (a + 4m + b) / 6, SD = (b - a) / 6. Row ranges
are E - SD to E + SD. Epic spread aggregated as sqrt(sum of variances), with the
fully-correlated sum reported alongside because A2 is shared across four rows.
Three-point inputs from a two-round Wideband Delphi with three estimators.
Change-shape distribution consumed as an input, not derived here.

Keep the "distribution, not a commitment" line and the "Method" section even when they feel redundant. They are what stop a reader from turning E into a date.