macro-analysis

Macroeconomic cycle positioning and central-bank policy interpretation, including GDP/CPI/PMI/rates/FX analysis, with output in the form of major-asset allocation tilts.

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Macroeconomic Analysis

Overview

Interprets macroeconomic data and central-bank policy, identifies the current economic-cycle stage, and derives major-asset allocation direction. Covers the three major economies of China (PBOC), the United States (Fed), and Europe (ECB).

Core Indicator System

Growth Indicators

Indicator	Frequency	Key Threshold	Data Source
GDP YoY	Quarterly	China >5% = normal, <4% = weak	National Bureau of Statistics
Manufacturing PMI	Monthly	>50 = expansion, <50 = contraction, 49-51 = borderline	NBS / Caixin
Industrial production	Monthly	>5% = normal	National Bureau of Statistics
Retail sales	Monthly	>8% = strong consumption	National Bureau of Statistics
Fixed asset investment	Monthly	Focus on infrastructure vs real-estate components	National Bureau of Statistics

Inflation Indicators

Indicator	Frequency	Key Threshold	Interpretation
CPI YoY	Monthly	>3% = inflation pressure, <0% = deflation risk	Strongly affected by the pork cycle, so core CPI is more reliable
PPI YoY	Monthly	>0% = improving corporate profits, <0% = deflation transmission	Leads CPI by 3-6 months
Core CPI	Monthly	>2% = demand-driven inflation	Excludes food and energy
M2 YoY	Monthly	>10% = monetary easing	The M2-M1 spread reflects how active liquidity is

Rates and FX

Indicator	Meaning	Focus
1Y / 5Y LPR	Loan prime rate	Rate-cut signal
DR007	Interbank 7-day repo rate	Funding tightness / looseness
10Y government bond yield	Risk-free rate anchor	<2.5% = loose, >3.5% = tight
USD/CNY	Exchange rate	>7.3 = high depreciation pressure
US 10Y-2Y spread	Term spread	Inversion signals recession (leads by 12-18 months)

Four-Stage Economic Cycle Model

Merrill Lynch Clock Framework

GDP↑ + CPI↓           GDP↑ + CPI↑
        ┌─────────┐           ┌─────────┐
        │ Recovery │ ────→    │ Overheat│
        │          │           │         │
        └────┬────┘           └────┬────┘
             ↑                     │
             │                     ↓
        ┌────┴────┐           ┌────┴────┐
        │Recession│ ←────     │Stagflat │
        │         │           │         │
        └─────────┘           └─────────┘
        GDP↓ + CPI↓           GDP↓ + CPI↑

Asset Performance by Stage

Stage	Best Asset	Second-Best Asset	Worst Asset	Typical Policy
Recovery	Equities (growth / small cap)	Commodities	Bonds	Monetary easing + fiscal stimulus
Overheat	Commodities (oil / copper)	Equities (cyclical / value)	Bonds	Hiking cycle begins
Stagflation	Cash / short-duration bonds	Gold	Equities	Policy dilemma
Recession	Bonds (long duration)	Gold	Equities / commodities	Rate cuts + quantitative easing

China-Specific Adjustments

Real-estate cycle: property sales / investment is a core variable in China's economy, and the policy response during downturns determines the turning point
Infrastructure offset: when property is weak, infrastructure often strengthens (countercyclical adjustment), so track the pace of special-bond issuance
Export orientation: external demand (US PMI / Eurozone PMI) affects manufacturing conditions
Policy-driven market: tone-setting from Politburo meetings / the Central Economic Work Conference matters more than the data itself

Central Bank Policy Analysis Framework

Federal Reserve (Fed)

Sequence to watch: FOMC statement → dot plot → Powell speech → meeting minutes

Signal	Hawkish (tightening)	Dovish (easing)
Employment	"labor market remains tight"	"softening in labor market"
Inflation	"inflation remains elevated"	"inflation moving toward target"
Forward guidance	"further tightening may be appropriate"	"rate cuts could be appropriate"
Balance sheet	Faster / continued QT	Slower QT / hints of QE

Fed decision function: core PCE > 2.5% → tightening bias; unemployment > 4.5% → easing bias; when the two conflict, focus on which deviation is larger

People's Bank of China (PBOC)

Toolbox:

Tool	Signal Strength	Impact
RRR cut	Strong	Releases long-term liquidity, bullish for equities and bonds
Rate cuts (MLF/LPR)	Strong	Reduces financing costs, bullish for growth stocks
OMO (reverse repo)	Medium	Short-term liquidity adjustment
PSL / relending	Medium	Targeted support (infrastructure / real estate)
Window guidance	Weak but effective	Directs credit allocation

European Central Bank (ECB)

Core variables: HICP (harmonized CPI), Eurozone PMI, Germany-France yield spread Special feature: large divergence among member economies, creating a "one size fits all" problem

Analysis Framework

Step 1: Data Collection and Current-State Description

Collect core indicators from the latest 3 months:
- China: PMI, CPI, PPI, M2, aggregate financing, LPR
- United States: nonfarm payrolls, CPI, core PCE, ISM PMI, Fed rate
- Global: oil, copper, US dollar index (DXY), VIX

Step 2: Cycle Positioning

Decision criteria:
1. GDP trend: accelerating / decelerating / topping / bottoming
2. Inflation trend: rising / falling / topping / bottoming
3. Policy direction: easing / neutral / tightening / turning
4. Composite stage: recovery / overheat / stagflation / recession
5. Cycle position: early / mid / late

Step 3: Policy Impact Assessment

1. Recent policy events (last 30 days)
2. Interpretation of policy intent (support growth / control inflation / contain risk)
3. Transmission paths to each asset class
4. Lag estimation (6-12 months for monetary policy, 3-6 months for fiscal policy)

Step 4: Asset Allocation Tilt

Based on cycle position and policy direction:
- Overweight / neutral / underweight: China A-shares / Hong Kong stocks / US equities / bonds / commodities / cash
- Style tilt: growth vs value, large cap vs small cap
- Sector preference: cyclical / defensive / growth

Output Format

## Macro Environment Assessment

### Snapshot of Core Data
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Trend |
|------|--------|------|------|
| China PMI | 50.2 | 49.8 | ↑ |
| ... | ... | ... | ... |

### Economic Cycle Positioning
- **Current stage**: early recovery / mid-overheat / late stagflation / mid-recession
- **Core logic**: explain the basis in 2-3 sentences
- **Estimated remaining duration**: expected to last another X months

### Central Bank Policy Analysis
- **PBOC**: easing bias, likely another 25bp RRR cut in Q2
- **Fed**: hiking pause, watch the June dot plot
- **Policy conflicts**: whether there are conflicting policy signals worth attention

### Major Asset Allocation Tilt
| Asset | Recommendation | Logic |
|------|------|------|
| China A-shares | Overweight | Policy bottom confirmed + loose liquidity |
| Bonds | Neutral | Limited room for rates to fall further |
| Commodities | Underweight | Weak demand |
| Cash | Underweight | High opportunity cost |

### Risk Warnings
- Risk 1: ...
- Risk 2: ...

Notes

Data timeliness: macro data is released with lags; PMI is the timeliest (start of month), GDP is the most delayed (quarter-end + 15 days)
Do not predict precisely: macro analysis provides directional judgment, not exact levels or timing
Focus on marginal change: direction and speed of change matter more than absolute levels
China-specific feature: policy intent > economic data, and major meeting tone-setting has the highest priority
Global linkage: the US dollar / US Treasury yields are global pricing anchors, and Fed policy affects global liquidity
Avoid hindsight bias: analyze based on the information available at the time, not by reverse-engineering from future data

Repository: HKUDS/Vibe-Trading
Path: agent/src/skills/macro-analysis/SKILL.md
Commit: 8643fcd

Last updated: 2 days ago
First committed: 4 months ago

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