Hypothesis-Driven Development: Lean Startup for Technical Discovery

Transforms modernization proposals into testable hypotheses with Build-Measure-Learn cycles. Instead of assuming a solution works and planning its full execution, HDD proposes: first the hypothesis, then the minimum experiment, then the evidence, then the decision.

Guiding Principle

We do not assume it works. We propose that it should work, define how we would know, and test it.

Classic discovery produces a roadmap based on the "best-case scenario." HDD produces a roadmap based on incrementally validated hypotheses. Each roadmap phase is an experiment. Each gate is a decision point: kill, pivot, or persevere.

HDD Philosophy

1. Every feature is a hypothesis, not a certainty. "Migrating to microservices will improve time-to-market" is a hypothesis. It needs metrics, thresholds, and an experiment to validate it.
2. Fast failure is a success. Discovering in Sprint 2 that a hypothesis is false saves months of execution in the wrong direction.
3. Kill is a valid decision. If the experiment refutes the hypothesis, killing the work stream is the correct decision. Escalating sunk cost fallacy is the worst decision.
4. Metrics before code. Define what we will measure BEFORE building. If we do not know what to measure, we do not know what we are testing.
5. Build-Measure-Learn, not Build-Build-Build. Each cycle is short (1-5 days). Build the minimum to measure. Measure to learn. Learn to decide.

References

• Eric Ries — The Lean Startup (2011): Build-Measure-Learn loop
• Jeff Gothelf — Lean UX (2013): Hypothesis-driven design
• Paulo Caroli — Lean Inception (2018): Discovery as lean inception
• Martin Fowler — Evolutionary Architecture: fitness functions as architecture hypotheses
• Barry O'Reilly — Hypothesis-Driven Development in enterprise

Inputs

Parse $1 as project/scenario name. Requires: approved scenario (Phase 3), feature backlog, business objectives. Recommended: metrics baseline (current performance), stakeholder priorities.

HDD Hypothesis Structure

HIPÓTESIS #{N}
══════════════
Creemos que: [acción/cambio propuesto]
Para: [audiencia/sistema afectado]
Resultará en: [outcome esperado]
Lo sabremos cuando: [métrica observable]
Con umbral de éxito: [valor cuantitativo]

Experimento:
  Tipo: [spike/PoC/MVP/A-B test/shadow deployment]
  Duración: [N sprints de 1 día]
  Recursos: [N FTEs]
  Entregable mínimo: [qué se construye]
  Medición: [cómo se mide]

Decisión:
  Kill si: [métrica < umbral_kill]
  Pivot si: [umbral_kill ≤ métrica < umbral_success]
  Persevere si: [métrica ≥ umbral_success]

Delivery Structure

S1: Business Hypothesis Canvas

Transform scenario objectives into business hypotheses:

S2: Experiment Design Matrix

For each hypothesis, design the minimum experiment:

S3: Build-Measure-Learn Cycles

Map each hypothesis to BML cycles:

flowchart TD
    H1[Hipótesis H1] --> B1[BUILD\n1 microservicio\n5 días, 2 FTEs]
    B1 --> M1[MEASURE\nDeploy frequency\nMTTR, error rate]
    M1 --> L1{LEARN\n¿Deploy ≥1/día?}
    L1 -->|Sí| P1[PERSEVERE\nExtraer siguiente servicio]
    L1 -->|Parcial| PV1[PIVOT\nAjustar granularidad]
    L1 -->|No| K1[KILL\nReevaluar estrategia\nde descomposición]

S4: HDD-Enhanced Roadmap

The traditional roadmap is transformed:

Before (classic roadmap):

Fase 1 → Fase 2 → Fase 3 → Fase 4 → Entrega

After (HDD roadmap):

H1:Experiment → H1:Measure → H1:Decision → [Kill|Pivot|Persevere]
                                              ↓
H2:Experiment → H2:Measure → H2:Decision → [Kill|Pivot|Persevere]
                                              ↓
H3:Experiment → H3:Measure → H3:Decision → [Kill|Pivot|Persevere]

Each hypothesis has its own cycle. MUST hypotheses go first. If a MUST fails, re-evaluate the entire scenario.

S5: Decision Log

S6: Validated Hypothesis Portfolio

At the end of the process, the portfolio shows:

Integration with Discovery Pipeline

When to Use

• Formulating scenarios as testable propositions (Phase 3)
• Designing validation experiments for the Think Tank (Phase 3b)
• Building HDD-enhanced roadmaps (Phase 4)
• When the client asks "how do we know this will work?"
• When there is significant uncertainty in the proposed solution

When NOT to Use

• Well-understood migrations with proven patterns (lift-and-shift)
• Regulatory compliance projects with fixed scope
• Emergency/crisis responses where speed overrides learning

Trade-off Matrix

Edge Cases

Validation Gate

• Every MUST feature has an HDD hypothesis
• Each hypothesis has: metric, success threshold, kill threshold
• Experiments designed with minimum viable scope
• BML cycles mapped with decision points
• Kill/Pivot/Persevere criteria are quantitative, not qualitative
• Integration with roadmap phases documented

Casos Borde

Decisiones y Trade-offs

Knowledge Graph

graph TD
    subgraph Core["HDD Core"]
        A[metodologia-hypothesis-driven-development]
        A1[S1: Business Hypothesis Canvas]
        A2[S2: Experiment Design Matrix]
        A3[S3: Build-Measure-Learn Cycles]
        A4[S4: HDD-Enhanced Roadmap]
        A5[S5: Decision Log]
        A6[S6: Validated Hypothesis Portfolio]
    end
    subgraph Inputs["Inputs"]
        I1[Escenario Aprobado - Phase 3]
        I2[Feature Backlog]
        I3[Business Objectives]
        I4[Metrics Baseline]
    end
    subgraph Outputs["Outputs"]
        O1[HDD Hypotheses Document]
        O2[Experiment Roadmap]
        O3[Decision Log]
    end
    subgraph Related["Related Skills"]
        R1[metodologia-technical-feasibility]
        R2[metodologia-roadmap-poc]
        R3[metodologia-cost-estimation]
        R4[metodologia-software-viability]
    end
    I1 --> A
    I2 --> A
    I3 --> A
    I4 --> A
    A --> A1 --> A2 --> A3 --> A4 --> A5 --> A6
    A --> O1
    A --> O2
    A --> O3
    R1 --> A
    A --> R2
    A --> R3
    A --- R4

Output Templates

Formato MD (default):

# HDD Hypotheses — {proyecto}
## Resumen Ejecutivo
> N hipotesis formuladas, M experimentos disenados, timeline estimado: X sprints.
## S1: Business Hypothesis Canvas
| # | Hipotesis | Metrica | Umbral Exito | Umbral Kill | Prioridad |
## S2: Experiment Design Matrix
| Hipotesis | Tipo Experimento | Duracion | FTEs | Entregable Minimo |
## S3-S6: [secciones completas con diagramas BML]
## Apendice: Referencias y Supuestos

Formato PPTX (para presentacion a steering committee):

Slide 1: Titulo + contexto del escenario
Slide 2: Hypothesis Canvas (tabla resumen de H1-Hn)
Slide 3-N: Una slide por hipotesis (hipotesis + experimento + criterios kill/pivot/persevere)
Slide N+1: Roadmap HDD (timeline visual con gates de decision)
Slide N+2: Investment ask (esfuerzo para validar vs esfuerzo para ejecutar)
Slide N+3: Decision framework (que pasa si H1 falla, si H2 pivota, etc.)

Formato HTML (bajo demanda):

• Filename: A-03_HDD_Hypotheses_{project}_{WIP}.html
• Estructura: HTML self-contained branded (Design System MetodologIA v5). Light-First Technical page con hypothesis canvas interactivo, BML cycle diagrams, y decision log con semáforo Kill/Pivot/Persevere. WCAG AA, responsive, print-ready.

Formato DOCX (bajo demanda):

• Filename: A-03_HDD_Hypotheses_{project}_{WIP}.docx
• Generado con python-docx bajo MetodologIA Design System v5: portada, TOC automático, encabezados/pies de página con marca, tablas zebra, tipografía Poppins (headings navy), Montserrat (body), acentos dorados

Formato XLSX (bajo demanda):

• Filename: A-03_HDD_Hypotheses_{project}_{WIP}.xlsx
• Generado con openpyxl bajo MetodologIA Design System v5. Headers con fondo navy y tipografía Poppins blanca, formato condicional, auto-filtros activados, valores sin fórmulas. Hojas: Hypothesis Canvas, Experiment Design Matrix, Decision Log, Validated Portfolio.

Evaluacion

Umbral minimo global: 7/10. Si alguna dimension cae por debajo, el entregable requiere revision antes de entrega.

Output Configuration

• Language: Spanish (Latin American, business register — simple, clear, concise, direct)
• Attribution: Expert committee of the MetodologIA Discovery Framework
• Tagline: "Construido por profesionales, potenciado por la red agéntica de MetodologIA."

Output Artifact

Primary: A-03_HDD_Hypotheses_{project}.md

Diagrams (Mermaid)

• Flowchart TD: Build-Measure-Learn cycles per hypothesis
• Gantt: experiment timeline with decision gates

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