Judge Long-Distance Military Campaign

Overview

A framework for evaluating surprise attacks on distant targets, recognizing inherent risks. Based on the failed Qin attack on Zheng.

Steps

1. Receive Intelligence

   • Evaluate claims about target vulnerability
   • Consider the reliability of informants

2. Assess Distance Factors

   • Calculate the distance to target
   • Consider how many territories must be crossed
   • Recognize that long-distance surprise attacks rarely succeed

3. Consider Information Security

   • If someone is selling intelligence, they might also sell to your enemy
   • Assume the target may already be warned

4. Consult Experienced Advisors

   • Seek opinions from those with military experience
   • Consider objections seriously rather than dismissing them

5. Make the Decision

   • Weigh potential gains against high risks
   • Consider alternatives

6. Prepare Contingencies

   • If proceeding, plan for discovery
   • Have alternative objectives if primary target is forewarned

Warning Signs

• Informants offering to betray their own state may be unreliable
• Long supply lines through multiple states create vulnerabilities
• Overconfidence in secrecy often leads to disaster

Expected Outcomes

• Avoided catastrophic defeats from overextended campaigns
• Better allocation of military resources
• Preserved forces for more achievable objectives

Validation

• Verify that intelligence sources were evaluated for reliability and potential double-dealing before committing forces
• Confirm that experienced military advisors were consulted and their objections formally considered
• Check that contingency plans with alternative objectives exist in case the primary target is forewarned