Strategic Cost-Benefit Analysis

Based on Hu Yan's advice against attacking Pu.

Overview

Before attacking a target, analyze whether success helps or harms your strategic position.

Steps

1. Identify the Target's Strategic Value

   • What does the target provide to whom?
   • Example: Pu is vital to Wei's independence

2. Analyze Consequences of Success

   • If you capture the target, who benefits?
   • Will success strengthen a rival?
   • Example: Capturing Pu would force Wei to submit to your rival (Wei)

3. Evaluate Secondary Effects

   • How will power balance shift?
   • Will a weakened party become stronger through consolidation?

4. Consider Ruler's Perception

   • Will this action be seen as helping or harming the state?
   • Ruler will judge based on outcomes, not intentions

5. Recommend Alternative

   • If action harms your interests, propose alternative
   • Find way to gain credit without negative consequences

Decision Framework

• If action helps enemy more than you: Do not proceed
• If action strengthens rival state: Do not proceed
• If ruler will blame you for consequences: Do not proceed

Expected Outcomes

• Avoid strategic mistakes
• Maintain ruler's favor
• Prevent unintended strengthening of rivals

Validation

1. Map the full chain of consequences: target capture leads to which power shift, which forces which consolidation, which benefits whom — if the chain ends at a rival's gain, do not proceed
2. Verify the alternative proposal genuinely serves state interests and is not merely a face-saving inaction plan
3. Confirm the ruler's perception has been considered — will the ruler credit you for wisdom in restraint, or blame you for missed opportunity?