Timing Military Attack

Overview

A decision framework for choosing when to attack an enemy, based on Fan Li's counsel to Goujian.

Steps

1. Wait for enemy to eliminate its own wise advisors - Wu killed Zixu before Yue attacked
2. Assess enemy's current deployment - Attack when elite forces are away
3. Look for internal decay - Confirm enemy is surrounded by flatterers
4. Verify strategic opportunity - Enemy leader distracted (at conference in Huangchi)
5. Strike with full force - Deploy trained troops (20,000 naval, 40,000 infantry, 6,000 elite guards)

Decision Criteria

• Enemy's best advisors eliminated or ignored? ✓
• Enemy forces deployed elsewhere? ✓
• Only weak defenders remain? ✓
• Enemy leadership complacent? ✓

Warning

Fan Li said "Not yet" twice before finally saying "Now is the time" - patience is critical.

Expected Outcomes

• Maximum surprise advantage
• Victory against superior forces
• Minimal own casualties

Verification

1. Confirm that all four decision criteria are met: enemy advisors eliminated, forces deployed elsewhere, only weak defenders remain, and leadership is complacent.
2. Validate that the timing decision reflects patience (Fan Li said "Not yet" twice before "Now") rather than eagerness.
3. Check that full strike force is prepared and deployed (naval, infantry, elite guards) before initiating the attack.